![]() We should be mindful that the seasonal inventory increase should happen shortly. However, last year the weekly decline was much less. Looking at last year, this week was when we found the bottom in seasonal inventory before the rise. We still aren’t back to pre-COVID-19 housing inventory levels, as shown below. ![]() However, inventory is still above where it was last year, so now we are waiting to see when the seasonal inventory increase will start to happen. (I discussed my theory on why inventory bottoms out later in the year on this HousingWire Daily podcast. Hopefully, this is just a by-product of the three months of positive purchase application data from November to February. Instead, we are now going into the third year in a row when it bottoms out in March or beyond.Īccording to Altos Research data, housing Inventory fell by 11,021 over the last week, which is noticeably more than we saw the previous week, meaning the downtrend is picking up steam instead of slowing down as we head into March. We still haven’t hit the elusive bottom for seasonal inventory, which traditionally happens in January. After May, traditionally speaking, volumes always fall, so we have about three more months here before the seasonal decline, which will be very interesting to watch since we are already at 1995 levels today. The seasonality of this data line is typically the second week of January to the first week of May. When mortgage rates fall again and we see an increase in this data line, we need to remind ourselves that we’re working from an extremely low bar. Purchase apps look out for 30-90 days, so it will be some time before this hits the home sales data. The chart below is a great illustration of where we are. ![]() However, the trend has turned and the mother of all low bars just got lower, as the last time purchase application data was this low was in 1995, when Gangsta’s Paradise was the No. ![]()
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